Learning nonlinear state-space models using smooth particle-filter-based likelihood approximations

نویسندگان

  • Andreas Svensson
  • Fredrik Lindsten
  • Thomas B. Schön
چکیده

When classical particle filtering algorithms are used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear statespace models, a key challenge is that estimates of the likelihood function and its derivatives are inherently noisy. The key idea in this paper is to run a particle filter based on a current parameter estimate, but then use the output from this particle filter to re-evaluate the likelihood function approximation also for other parameter values. This results in a (local) deterministic approximation of the likelihood and any standard optimization routine can be applied to find the maximum of this local approximation. By iterating this procedure we eventually arrive at a final parameter estimate.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo

Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, decisions and predictions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state space models. There is no closedform solution available for this problem, implying that we...

متن کامل

Sigma-Point Filtering and Smoothing Based Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Dynamic Systems

We consider approximate maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models. We discuss both direct optimization of the likelihood and expectation– maximization (EM). For EM, we also give closed-form expressions for the maximization step in a class of models that are linear in parameters and have additive noise. To obtain approximations to the filtering and smoothing distrib...

متن کامل

Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation in General State-Space Models using Particle Methods

A large number of time series can be described by nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. While state estimation for these models is now routinely performed using particle filters, maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is much more challenging. In this paper, we present new numerical methods to approximate the derivative of the optimal filter. We use this to perform batch an...

متن کامل

Real-time Recursive State Estimation for Nonlinear Discrete Dynamic Systems with Gaussian or non-Gaussian Noise

Many systems in the real world are more accurately described by nonlinear models. Since the original work of Kalman (Kalman, 1960; Kalman & Busy, 1961), which introduces the Kalman filter for linear models, extensive research has been going on state estimation of nonlinear models; but there do not yet exist any optimum estimation approaches for all nonlinear models, except for certain classes o...

متن کامل

Smooth particle filters for likelihood evaluation and maximisation

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast, robust and avoids many...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • CoRR

دوره abs/1711.10765  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017